The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has issued a notable cautionary alert regarding the heightened risk of an upswing in dengue fever (DF) occurrences during the month of September. This alert is primarily linked to the pronounced uptick in rainfall as well as elevated humidity levels in the Jakarta Special Capital Region (DKI Jakarta).
In a bid to underscore the significance of this warning, BMKG took to its official Instagram account, emphasizing the need for vigilance in light of the impending potential surge in DF cases slated for September 2023. This vigilance, according to the agency, must be exercised uniformly throughout the entirety of the DKI Jakarta region.
The predictive model used by BMKG in its assessment assigns a categorization denoted as the Predicted Incidence Rate (AI) for DF in September 2023. This categorization, crucial in understanding the scale of risk, reveals that the alert category falls within the AI range of 3 to 10. Notably, this heightened level of alert pertains to specific areas within DKI Jakarta, encompassing West Jakarta, East Jakarta, and South Jakarta.
Conversely, there are pockets within the region that enjoy a designation of relative safety with AI values less than 3, notably including Central Jakarta and North Jakarta. Fortunately, none of the areas fall into the perilous category labeled as ‘Dangerous,’ characterized by an AI exceeding 10.
For the sake of clarity, the AI represents the predictive estimate of the number of DF cases per 100,000 individuals within the population of DKI Jakarta. BMKG further underscores that the AI value serves as a direct reflection of the likelihood of increased DF cases, making it a pivotal factor in understanding and mitigating the associated risks.
In addition to issuing this alert, BMKG has proactively shared a set of guidelines aimed at averting the progression of AI into the ‘Alert’ category. These guidelines include the implementation of epidemiological investigations (PE), public awareness campaigns, the elimination of mosquito breeding sites, targeted larviciding activities, and focused fogging initiatives.
Crucially, BMKG underscores that the dual factors of heightened rainfall and appropriate humidity levels have the potential to amplify the occurrence of DF cases. To provide more context, the anticipated rainfall in DKI Jakarta for September, specifically during Dasarian III, is predicted to hover within the low category.
This is characterized by precipitation levels ranging between 0-20 mm and 21-50 mm. Importantly, these values remain notably distant from the threshold indicative of ‘Very High’ intensity, which necessitates precipitation exceeding 500 mm.
Furthermore, BMKG delves into the realm of humidity suitability, a pivotal factor in mosquito propagation – the carriers of DF. The agency’s analysis reveals that there is a high level of confidence regarding the humidity suitability factor for the development of DF mosquitoes, denoted by relative humidity (RH) levels exceeding 70%.
This suitability varies across different areas within Jakarta, with probabilities falling within the range of 40-50% in West Jakarta, 30-40% in South Jakarta, 20-30% in East Jakarta, and 10-20% in Central Jakarta and North Jakarta. It is imperative to note that the probability of humidity suitability directly correlates with the potential for an uptick in DF cases, a factor necessitating stringent preventive measures.
In essence, BMKG’s alert serves as a crucial reminder of the imminent DF risk, driven by a combination of meteorological factors and human behavior. As such, it underscores the importance of proactive measures, effective communication, and a heightened sense of awareness to mitigate the impact of this preventable disease outbreak.