Indonesia’s Trade Balance Estimated to Be a Big Surplus, Reaching US$3.29 Billion!

Trade Balance

Indonesia’s trade balance surplus will reach US$3.29 billion in February 2022, a significant increase from US$0.93 billion in January 2022. This is due to several events happening in the world.

Bank Mandiri economist Faisal Rachman explained that the move was influenced by the lifting of the ban on coal exports that was imposed at the beginning of the year, as well as the rising prices of major world commodities due to the escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Export performance is estimated to strengthen with a growth of 43.09 percent on an annual basis (year-on-year/YoY).

“Factors driving the improvement include lifting the ban on coal exports and rising prices for the world’s main commodities, especially coal,” he said.

On the other hand, import performance is estimated to grow by 39.74 percent YoY, up from 36.77 percent YoY growth in January 2022.

Furthermore, the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) will announce data on the performance of Indonesia’s exports and imports, as well as the development of workers’ wages this afternoon, Tuesday (15/3/2022).

The data release will be carried out by the Head of BPS Margo Yuwono in a hybrid way through face-to-face, Zoom Meeting and BPS Youtube. The release will take place at 11.00 WIB. Meanwhile, the release material can be accessed on the BPS website, after the streaming release is complete.

Based on the Bloomberg consensus, the average trade balance surplus is estimated at US$2.15 billion, with a lower estimate of US$536 million and an upper estimate of US$3.6 billion.

On the other hand, Bank Permata’s Chief Economist Josua Pardede estimates that Indonesia’s trade balance will record a surplus of US$3.1 billion in February 2022. Indonesia’s export performance is estimated to grow 40.04 percent yoy in that period.

“The increase in export value is based on the increase in prices of Indonesian export commodities in the global market, such as CPO and coal. The two commodities recorded a price increase of more than 10 percent,” he said.

Josua said that export performance has also increased in terms of volume, driven by coal exports which were delayed in January 2022 due to regulations prohibiting the export of these commodities.

Therefore, he estimates that Indonesia’s imports, which BPS will announce soon this afternoon, will grow by 37.32 percent YoY in February 2022.