Rain continues to shape daily life across Indonesia. From western to eastern regions, wet conditions remain widespread, and forecasts show that rain will stay dominant in the coming days. New data from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency, or BMKG, outlines how rainfall intensity will vary across the country.
Based on the “Prediction of 24 Hour Rainfall Accumulation in Indonesia,” most regions are expected to experience moderate rain over the next few days, extending through February 5, 2026. Even so, several areas are projected to face heavier rainfall that could disrupt activities.
For the period from Thursday, January 29, 2026, to Friday, January 30, 2026, at 07.00 WIB, BMKG’s official Instagram account details three levels of rainfall intensity.
Light rain is forecast for Aceh, West Sumatra, Riau, the Riau Islands, the Bangka Belitung Islands, Bali, West Kalimantan, and Southwest Papua.
Moderate rain is expected in North Sumatra, Jambi, South Sumatra, Bengkulu, Lampung, Jakarta, Central Java, Yogyakarta, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, South Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, North Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Gorontalo, Central Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, Southeast Sulawesi, North Maluku, Maluku, West Papua, Papua, Papua Highlands, South Papua, and Central Papua.
Heavy rain is predicted to hit Banten, West Java, East Nusa Tenggara, Central Kalimantan, and South Sulawesi.
Beyond short term forecasts, BMKG is also looking ahead to seasonal changes. Head of BMKG Teuku Faisal Fathani said the 2026 rainy season will not end all at once, but will gradually taper off, especially in southern parts of Indonesia.
“Indonesia is a very large country. For areas such as Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara, it will end around February to March. Then April, May, June, until around September will enter the dry season,” Faisal said.
This means regions such as Java, Bali, and Nusa Tenggara are expected to begin transitioning toward the dry season in April. Rainfall intensity in these areas is projected to decrease gradually from late February through March. The dry season itself is forecast to continue until around September.
BMKG also estimates that the rainy season in southern Indonesia will only return toward the end of the year.
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“The rainy season will only start again in October,” Teuku continued.
Seasonal patterns differ in areas closer to the Equator. Northern parts of Sumatra, in particular, follow a unique cycle that includes two rainy seasons and two dry seasons each year.
“But it should be noted that in equatorial regions, the northern parts are slightly different. For example, in Sumatra, such as Aceh, North Sumatra, and West Sumatra, they have conditions where two rainy seasons and two dry seasons occur,” he explained.
In fact, several of these equatorial regions are already seeing early signs of the dry season. Areas including Aceh, North Sumatra, Riau, and West Sumatra have begun entering the initial dry phase, although conditions remain relatively mild.
“Where currently conditions have entered the early dry season in Aceh, North Sumatra, Riau, up to West Sumatra. They are already in the dry season, but not too dry. However, forest and land fires may occur,” Teuku said.
Despite this early transition, BMKG warns that rain may still return to these regions of Indonesia between April and June. After that period, the areas are expected to move into the next dry season cycle.
