Indonesia’s economic outlook just received a vote of confidence from one of the world’s most influential institutions. The International Monetary Fund, IMF, has raised its growth projections for the country, signaling stronger expectations for the coming years despite ongoing global uncertainty.
In the January 2026 edition of the World Economic Outlook Update, the IMF now projects Indonesia’s economy to grow by 5.1 percent in both 2026 and 2027. The figure is slightly higher than the estimated 5 percent growth recorded in 2025. It also marks an upward revision from the IMF’s previous forecast published in October 2025. Compared with that earlier outlook, the projection for 2026 has been revised up by 0.2 percentage points, while the 2027 estimate is higher by 0.1 percentage points.
The improved outlook for Indonesia comes alongside a more optimistic global picture. The IMF now expects global economic growth in 2026 to reach 3.3 percent. This is up from the 3.1 percent projection stated in the October 2025 World Economic Outlook.
While the IMF did not provide a detailed explanation specifically for Indonesia’s revised outlook, it pointed to broader global dynamics. Economic resilience worldwide, according to the IMF, has been supported by aggressive fiscal stimulus and accommodative monetary policies implemented this year. These measures have helped counter pressures stemming from geopolitical conflicts and weakening global trade activity.
“The resilience shown so far has largely been driven by a few sectors and often supported by monetary and fiscal accommodation,” the IMF said in its latest report, quoted on Tuesday, January 20, 2026.
Even so, Indonesia’s growth prospects stand out. Within the group of 30 selected economies covered in the January 2026 WEO Update, Indonesia is among the faster growing countries. Its projected growth rate of 5.1 percent in both 2026 and 2027 is surpassed by only a few peers.
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The Philippines is expected to grow by 5.6 percent in 2026 and 5.8 percent in 2027. India remains the fastest growing among the group, with growth projected at 6.4 percent in both years. Egypt is forecast to reach 5.4 percent growth in 2027, after a lower projection of 4.7 percent in 2026.
Compared with other major economies, Indonesia’s outlook appears stronger. China’s growth is projected to slow from an estimated 5 percent in 2025 to 4.5 percent in 2026 and further to 4 percent in 2027. Malaysia is expected to grow by 4.3 percent in both 2026 and 2027, below its 2025 estimate of 4.6 percent. Thailand faces a sharper slowdown, with growth projected at just 1.6 percent in 2026, down from 2.1 percent in 2025, before a modest recovery to 2.2 percent in 2027.
The IMF’s outlook is also more optimistic than the latest projections from the World Bank, at least for 2026. In the January 2026 edition of the Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank estimates Indonesia’s economic growth will remain at 5 percent in 2026, in line with its performance from 2023 through 2025. Growth is then expected to rise to 5.2 percent in 2027.
According to the World Bank, Indonesia’s stable growth trajectory is supported by government stimulus measures introduced since 2025, along with continued investment driven by the state.
“Growth in Indonesia is expected to be sustained (at the 5 percent level) thanks to fiscal stimulus and state-led investment,” as stated in the latest GEP report, quoted on Thursday, January 15, 2025.
Taken together, the projections from the IMF and the World Bank underline Indonesia’s position as one of the more resilient and consistently growing economies in the region. While global risks remain, international institutions appear increasingly confident in Indonesia’s ability to maintain steady growth in the years ahead.
