Indonesia could welcome 16.2 million international tourist arrivals in 2026 tourism, bringing the country close to the visitor numbers recorded before the COVID-19 pandemic. The Indonesian Tourism Industry Association (GIPI) says this target may be within reach if the growth seen so far this year continues through December. However, the figure remains a projection rather than a confirmed year-end result.
The outlook was presented at GIPI’s National Leadership Meeting press conference in Jakarta on Wednesday, October 14, 2026. Held under the theme “GIPI Solidarity in Developing National Tourism Amid Global Geopolitical Dynamics,” the event highlighted the sector’s recent performance and the opportunities Indonesia could pursue to attract more overseas visitors.
According to GIPI, Indonesia recorded approximately 10.58 million international tourist arrivals between January and August 2026. This was a 5.38% increase compared with the same eight-month period in 2025. If that rate of growth is maintained, the country could reach the association’s full-year estimate.
“If this trend continues, with monthly growth of 5.38%, international tourist arrivals could reach 16.2 million in 2026,” said GIPI Chairman Hariyadi Sukamdani.
The projection would put Indonesia close to its pre-pandemic benchmark. The country recorded 16.11 million international tourist arrivals in 2019, before COVID-19 disrupted international travel. Reaching 16.2 million in 2026 would therefore bring visitor numbers back to around that level.
Still, the outcome will depend on whether the positive trend continues during the remaining months of the year. The estimated 16.2 million arrivals should not be mistaken for the actual total already achieved in 2026. It is a forecast based on the growth recorded so far.
GIPI believes Indonesia has several advantages that could help it attract more international travelers. One is the exchange rate. Hariyadi said the depreciation of the rupiah has made some Indonesian tourism products more competitively priced for visitors spending money in foreign currencies.
“The depreciation of the rupiah has actually made Indonesian tourism more competitive. It can attract international tourists to spend their holidays in Indonesia because prices are more competitive,” he said.
The country’s range of destinations also gives it an advantage. Indonesia offers numerous places for visitors to explore, while the growth of its creative industries adds to the experiences available to travelers. Together, these factors could help strengthen the country’s appeal in the international tourism market.
Access is another consideration. Hariyadi noted that direct flight routes from various countries to Indonesia have made travel more convenient for overseas visitors. Better air connections can make it easier for tourists to reach Indonesian destinations and support the country’s efforts to attract more international arrivals.
Despite these opportunities and the positive visitor growth, GIPI believes more work is needed to promote Indonesia overseas. Hariyadi expressed concern that the government has not allocated enough funding for tourism promotion. In his view, the sector needs stronger promotional support if the country wants to sustain and accelerate its growth.
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“Our assessment is that promotional funding is insufficient. If we want to drive growth, the necessary promotional budget must be prepared. This cannot be done solely by private tourism businesses. Tourism promotion must always be carried out by the state,” he said.
His comments highlight the importance of government involvement in promoting Indonesia as an international destination. Private tourism businesses play a role in attracting visitors, but GIPI argues that their efforts cannot replace the promotional role of the state.
With international arrivals reaching approximately 10.58 million in the first eight months of 2026, Indonesia has made progress toward its projected tourism annual total. A combination of competitive tourism prices, diverse destinations, a growing creative industry, and direct international flights could help maintain that momentum. Whether arrivals reach 16.2 million, however, will depend on continued growth through the end of the year and stronger promotional efforts to keep Indonesia visible to international travelers.
