Super El Niño 2026 is gaining strength much faster than expected. Scientists now believe it could become even more powerful than the 2023 event. If the current trend continues, Indonesia may face more widespread drought, while other parts of the world experience stronger tropical storms and severe flooding.
That warning comes from Prof. Dr. Erma Yulihastin, a climatology expert at Indonesia’s National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN). She said this year’s El Niño has developed at a much faster pace than the one recorded three years ago. Based on the latest climate data, it is projected to reach Super El Niño status by August 2026.
“El Niño is predicted to continue strengthening and reach SUPER status in August 2026 based on data from the Bureau of Meteorology Australia (BOM) and the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC),” Erma wrote on her personal X account, @EYulihastin.
The latest observations support that projection. According to Erma, the El Niño index has climbed to 1.74 degrees Celsius. That level places it firmly in the strong El Niño category. It has also surpassed the peak recorded during the 2023 event.
“This value is higher than the peak of the 2023 El Niño. It’s now confirmed that El Niño 2026 will be much stronger than the 2023 event,” she said.
A stronger El Niño means stronger weather extremes. Erma expects tropical storms over the Pacific Ocean to become both more powerful and more frequent as the phenomenon continues to intensify.
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Those storms are expected to bring heavier rainfall and flooding to the Americas, the Philippines, and countries across the mid-to-high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. This is because storms forming over the Pacific Ocean are forecast to move farther north.
Indonesia faces the opposite problem. Instead of heavier rain, the country is expected to sit within the Pacific rain shadow region. That means drought conditions are likely to spread across more areas and become increasingly severe over time.
Erma believes the 2026 event will be much more aggressive than the one in 2023. Its impacts are expected to cover a larger area. The drought is also forecast to be more uniform, affecting much of the country rather than isolated regions.
Even so, a few areas are expected to remain relatively wet. These include northern Sumatra, parts of Sulawesi, and northern Kalimantan near the borders with Brunei and Malaysia.
The forecast has also heightened concerns over forest and land fires. Provinces that frequently experience wildfires, including West Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, South Kalimantan, and South Sumatra, are being urged to strengthen prevention efforts. Peatland areas require particular attention because they are highly vulnerable during prolonged dry periods.
“The combination of dry air, weak winds, and the prolonged absence of rainfall creates massive hotspot formation and provides conditions that allow fires to spread rapidly,” she concluded.
With Super El Niño 2026 expected to intensify in the coming weeks, experts say preparation will be essential. Indonesia could face a much broader drought than it experienced in 2023, while stronger Pacific storms threaten flooding in other regions. The months ahead are expected to test disaster preparedness both at home and around the world.
