As Indonesia shifts slowly into the dry season, much of the country is basking in clearer skies and warmer days. But the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) is urging the public not to let their guard down—because rain is still on the radar.
According to BMKG’s Atmospheric Dynamics Analysis III for April 2025, released on May 4, only about 6% of the country has officially entered the dry season. Areas experiencing the seasonal shift include parts of Aceh, North Sumatra, smaller regions in Central and East Java, portions of Bali, NTB, NTT, and a small section of West Papua.
Despite the generally dry outlook, BMKG warns that this transition period brings its own unique weather patterns. “The period between the rainy and dry season in Indonesia is increasingly showing distinct characteristics,” the agency said in its Weekly Weather Outlook, published on its official website and quoted on Tuesday, May 6.
BMKG described this phase as one marked by “more frequent sunny days, relatively high temperatures in certain areas, and drier air conditions,” with humidity levels ranging between 63% and 77%.
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However, these dry season signals don’t mean rain is completely out of the picture. The agency explained that atmospheric instability during this transition still allows the formation of convective clouds—those that can trigger moderate to heavy rainfall. “Although sunny weather is becoming more dominant, instability in the atmosphere still permits the development of rain-bearing clouds,” BMKG said.
Based on their rainfall analysis for the first third of May, BMKG detected ongoing potential for heavy rain in several regions. These include parts of East Nusa Tenggara, East Kalimantan, a small portion of South Sulawesi, and areas in Papua.
“Generally, atmospheric conditions across most regions in Indonesia are supporting sunny to partly cloudy weather,” BMKG stated. “However, current atmospheric dynamics still support convection processes that trigger rain cloud formation in some areas.”
The agency also issued practical advice for the public, encouraging preventive actions to cope with changing weather. “Considering the variability in weather conditions, people are advised to take anticipatory measures such as maintaining health, staying hydrated, and limiting exposure to direct sunlight—especially around midday,” the agency noted.
At the same time, BMKG emphasized the importance of staying alert for possible storms. “Caution is needed for moderate to heavy rainfall, which may be accompanied by lightning or thunderstorms—especially from afternoon into the evening,” the warning continued.
Looking ahead, BMKG forecasts more volatile weather for the period of May 6–12. The agency said the country may experience sharp temperature differences between morning and midday. “High solar radiation during the morning to early afternoon increases convection, which raises the chance of local rain later in the day,” it explained.
BMKG expects that most rainfall during this time will be scattered and short-lived but intense. “Rain events will generally be unevenly distributed, brief, and moderate to heavy in intensity, with potential for lightning and strong winds,” the agency concluded.
With the weather in flux, BMKG encourages residents to stay updated on forecasts and take care of their physical health in response to the shifting atmosphere.
