Extreme weather conditions are currently affecting Indonesia, with Jakarta experiencing floods that have reached up to 1 meter in some areas. This natural disaster is spreading across various regions of the country. As a result, the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has issued an early weather warning. It will be in effect from tomorrow, January 31, 2025, to February 3, 2025.
The agency has highlighted significant concerns regarding the risk of hydrometeorological disasters such as floods, flash floods, and landslides, which could strike at any moment. BMKG has urged the public to stay calm and vigilant in light of the extreme weather shifts and to familiarize themselves with evacuation measures if necessary.
The warning was part of the Weekly Weather Outlook, available on BMKG’s official website, and is valid until February 3, 2025. As the end of January approaches, BMKG has emphasized the increasing likelihood of heavy rainfall. In particular, the agency noted that the recent surge in humidity levels across Indonesia is tied to a strengthening Asian Monsoon, which has carried large amounts of moist air into the region.
This weather event is compounded by the Cold Surge phenomenon, which BMKG has flagged as significant in the past three days. The effect of this combination has been intense rainfall across various parts of Indonesia, particularly in the western and southern areas.
“Although in a weak phase, the La Nina phenomenon has contributed to increased rainfall, especially in tropical areas. The active MJO phenomenon, which is now located in the western part of Indonesia, along with other equatorial atmospheric waves such as Rossby Equator Waves and Kelvin Waves, supports the formation of convective clouds that can trigger heavy rainfall,” BMKG stated, as quoted on January 30, 2025.
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BMKG explained that the persistent influence of the Asian Monsoon winds is still a primary trigger for rainfall, with increased precipitation driven by the MJO, which is currently in phase 3 (East Indian Ocean), the weak La Nina, and active atmospheric waves. Regions such as Aceh, North Sumatra, North Kalimantan, and North Sulawesi are expected to be particularly impacted by the MJO’s activity.
In addition to the MJO, atmospheric waves conducive to convective cloud formation are present in multiple regions. The Rossby Equator Waves have been detected in West and South Kalimantan, South Sulawesi, and NTT, moving towards Sumatra, Java, Bali, and NTB, with increased rainfall expected in these areas.
Meanwhile, the Kelvin Waves are seen influencing central and eastern Indonesia, including Kalimantan, Central and North Sulawesi, East Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, and Sumatra, at the onset of February.
BMKG also noted that the interaction between the significant Cold Surge, cyclonic circulations in certain regions, and wind turning patterns will further amplify rainfall across a variety of regions. These include Aceh, North Sumatra, Lampung, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, East Java, Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua.
“This phenomenon underscores the importance of vigilance against the potential for extreme weather events in various parts of Indonesia,” BMKG concluded.
With the early weather warning in place, citizens are advised to prepare for light rain generally, but also expect periods of moderate to extreme rainfall, which may be accompanied by lightning and strong winds. The next few days are critical, as the potential for significant weather-related disruptions remains high across the country.