Indonesia’s Population Predicted to Reach 324 Million by 2045, Dominated by Ages 65 and Above

Indonesia's Population Predicted to Reach 324 Million by 2045, Dominated by Ages 65 and Above (Mahendra Putra - Unsplash)

Indonesia, the fourth most populous country globally, continues to experience population growth, and this trend is expected to persist. The latest findings from the National Development Planning Agency (Bappenas) reveal fascinating projections for Indonesia’s population by the year 2045, indicating a staggering increase to reach approximately 324 million individuals.

The Minister of National Development Planning and Head of Bappenas, Soeharso Monoarfa, emphasized the significance of this demographic shift, stating that the projected population surge of 54.42 million people from 2020 demonstrates the dynamic nature of Indonesia’s population dynamics. However, despite this notable increase, Soeharso pointed out that the growth rate is relatively decelerating over time.

During the National Development Planning Meeting for the 2024 National Medium-Term Development Plan (RPJMN) and the Launching of the 2020-2050 Population Projection, Soeharso elaborated on the expected population trends.

He stated, “The average annual population growth rate for the period between 2020 and 2050 is projected to be 0.67 percent, indicating a gradual slowdown in growth over the years.”

Furthermore, Soeharso shed light on the changing age structure of the population, highlighting the decline in the proportion of individuals aged 0-14 years from 24.56 percent in 2020 to 19.61 percent by 2045.

Simultaneously, the population aged 65 years and above is projected to rise significantly, increasing from 6.16 percent to 14.61 percent by 2045.

The pace of these demographic transformations in Indonesia is noteworthy. The country’s population dynamics have reached a crucial turning point, with India surpassing China as the most populous nation due to China’s negative population growth since 2021.

Meanwhile, Indonesia retains its position as the fourth most populous country globally in 2020, but the projections suggest a decline to the sixth position by 2045.

The underlying reasons for this anticipated change in Indonesia’s ranking can be attributed to the gradual deceleration of population growth since the 2030s.

This shift will create an intriguing landscape, with Nigeria and Pakistan ascending to the fourth and fifth positions, respectively, in terms of population size.

As Indonesia navigates these demographic transitions, policymakers will face unique challenges and opportunities. Understanding and responding to the evolving needs of a changing population structure will be crucial for sustainable development and effective resource allocation.