National Economic Recovery Going Well, Immune from the 2023 Recession?

Indonesia's Traditional Market

Indonesia’s economic recovery after the Covid-19 pandemic is going well. However, the real challenge will occur in 2023. A recession is predicted to occur in both developing and developed countries. Regarding this threat, the chance of a recession in Indonesia is predicted to be small.

This prediction was conveyed by the Main Director of PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BRI), Sunarso. He said that the chance of a recession in Indonesia is only in the range of 3%.

According to him, Indonesia’s success in avoiding a 2023 recession is due to domestic consumption and optimism about the condition of MSMEs.

Sunarso in the BRI Microfinance Outlook 2023, Thursday (26/1/2022), stated that these two factors are the key to Indonesia’s resilience to the 2023 recession.

Sunarso said, BRI research which is announced every three months and has been measured by the BRI micro SMI Index from evaluations in the fourth quarter of 2022, shows that there has been an increase in MSME business in all sectors due to improved economic performance as people’s purchasing power recovers.

In the MSME business index, business activity including volume, turnover, and sales has increased from 132 to 159 and is getting better.

“This is reinforced by the index of trust of MSME business actors in the government, all of which show positive. We see there that it is appropriate for international institutions to predict that the chance of a recession in Indonesia is only 3%,” he explained.

Seeing this, Sunarso stressed the importance of strong cooperation between various parties so that economic resilience in Indonesia can be stronger.

On the other hand, BUMN Minister Erick Thohir emphasized that various programs prepared by the Ministry of BUMN in encouraging financial inclusion and strengthening the MSME business have succeeded in bringing business people to the next level. One of these programs is the MSME Digital Market (PaDI) program.

This program is one of the means of directing the MSME business to business certainty and sustainability. The PaDI MSME program has also been able to encourage the transformation of SOEs from the start in forming an ecosystem that involves MSMEs.

He conveyed that the transformation of the MSME collaboration program with SOEs in the PaDI Program did not only help absorb products from MSMEs. This program also ensures that SOEs do not act as ivory towers that are towering and untouched by the people.

Erick said he was relieved and happy because the discussion about financial inclusion was increasingly directed and sharpened toward MSMEs. This is important because MSMEs are the arena of people’s lives, the arena of the people’s economy, and the arena for entrusting great hopes when surviving with one’s own business.