A longer and drier dry season could be on the horizon for Indonesia. The trigger is a climate pattern many people are now starting to hear more often. A possible “Godzilla” El Niño.
The warning comes from the National Research and Innovation Agency. It points to the risk of a super-intense El Niño that may stretch the 2026 dry season beyond normal conditions. The impact could be serious. Water supply may tighten. Agriculture could face pressure, especially in regions that already depend on stable rainfall.
The issue has quickly gained attention. Still, not everyone sees it as an immediate threat.
Agricultural observer Khudori urges the public to stay calm. He explains that the “Godzilla” label reflects an early-stage assessment, not a confirmed outcome.
“The issue of El Niño Godzilla is still unclear. Perhaps BRIN researchers want to raise public awareness of the risks so the government can respond quickly,” he said.
He also warns against jumping to conclusions. Assuming the worst too early can create unnecessary concern.
Data from the Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency supports a more measured view. The probability of a super-strong El Niño remains limited.
“According to my colleagues at BMKG, the probability of reaching a super-strong level, or what is called ‘Godzilla,’ is only around 15–20%. The highest likelihood is a moderate level,” Khudori explained.
There is also a timing factor. ENSO forecasts, especially those released between February and April, are generally reliable only for the next three months. Beyond that window, uncertainty increases.
Even with a lower probability, caution remains important.
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El Niño itself is not new. It is a climate phenomenon caused by rising sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This shift affects rainfall patterns across Indonesia. When it strengthens, the effects become more visible. Rainfall drops. The dry season lasts longer.
“El Niño, including the potential for a strong ‘Godzilla’ variation, can make Indonesia’s dry season longer and drier,” wrote Erma Yulihastin in an official post on @brin_indonesia.
Another factor may intensify the situation. A positive Indian Ocean Dipole is also expected. This condition cools sea surface temperatures around Sumatra and Java, which further reduces rainfall in western Indonesia.
Together, these two patterns could shape the entire dry season from April to October 2026.
The impact will not be the same everywhere. Geography plays a role.
Java and East Nusa Tenggara are expected to feel the dry conditions earlier than other regions. This raises concern because these areas are key centers of rice production. A longer drought could disrupt crops such as rice, secondary crops, and horticulture.
Meanwhile, parts of eastern Indonesia may see a different pattern. Regions like Sulawesi, Maluku, and Halmahera are expected to maintain relatively high rainfall, even during the dry season. This contrast shows that the “Godzilla” effect is not uniform across the country.
Preparation becomes the next focus.
BRIN highlights the need for early action. Monitoring water demand for farming, irrigation, and food reserves is essential, especially in vulnerable regions.
Farmers and local authorities may also need to adjust their approach. Diversifying crops can help reduce risk. Planting schedules may need to shift to match changing weather patterns.
Experts also suggest looking beyond long-term forecasts. Daily weather updates, local risk mapping, and coordination with institutions like BMKG, the Ministry of Agriculture, and the National Disaster Management Agency can provide more practical guidance.
At the same time, the term “Godzilla” needs to be understood properly. It is not a guarantee of disaster. It is simply a way to describe an extreme scenario.
“It is important to remember that this super El Niño prediction is not certain. People should stay aware but not panic,” Khudori said.
What lies ahead is still developing. But one thing is clear. Preparedness will matter.
BRIN stresses that readiness should be based on scientific data. Agriculture remains the most exposed sector, but the effects could spread further. Energy supply, clean water availability, and even local economies may feel the pressure if drought conditions intensify.
In the end, the response will depend on how well information is used. Careful observation. Early mitigation. And steady adaptation.
As the dry season unfolds, the public is encouraged to follow official updates from BRIN and BMKG. With the right awareness, the risk of extreme drought can be managed without turning concern into panic.
