Jakarta could soon face a grim new reality—severe flooding that no longer follows the usual five-year cycle but instead becomes an annual disaster. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) has warned that the worsening climate crisis is making extreme weather events more frequent, increasing the likelihood of massive floods hitting the capital every year.
BMKG Chief Dwikorita Karnawati explained that in past decades, major severe flooding in Jakarta typically occurred every five years, with devastating events recorded in 2025, 2020, and 2015. However, she cautioned that this pattern is shifting due to climate change and poor environmental management.
“If we fail to manage our environment properly, the five-year flood cycle will disappear. What used to happen every five years could occur every three years, with the same intensity as before,” Dwikorita stated in a virtual press conference on Monday (24/3).
“What is even more concerning is that such extreme flooding may become an annual occurrence, turning into a new normal,” she added.
BMKG data shows that global and national surface temperatures have been rising consistently. In 2024, an anomaly was recorded, with temperature increases reaching 1.55 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.
This figure has already surpassed the limits set by the Paris Agreement, an international climate accord adopted by 196 countries during COP21 in Paris on December 12, 2015. The agreement, which took effect on November 4, 2016, aims to keep global temperature increases “well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels” while striving to stay within 1.5 degrees Celsius.
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“This means that last year, we already surpassed the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold, which was originally projected for the end of the 21st century,” Dwikorita emphasized.
She also pointed out that Indonesia has been experiencing an increase in extreme rainfall events. This trend, she said, directly correlates with the ongoing climate crisis and is a major factor behind the rising flood risk in Jakarta and other regions.
“We must not allow this to become an annual norm. We need to work together to prevent it. BMKG data clearly shows a rising trend of extreme rainfall in various parts of Indonesia,” she stressed.
With the climate crisis accelerating at an alarming rate, experts warn that urgent action is needed to prevent Jakarta from being trapped in an endless cycle of floods.
