The domestic milk supplies are in danger. This is due to the wide spread of the foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMD). The Chairman of the Association of Indonesian Dairy Cooperatives (GKSI), Dedi Setiadi, even said that currently there is a significant decline in the dairy cow population due to FMD.
As of July 24, 2022, the population of dairy cattle in the province of West Java was recorded at 74,005 heads. There were 26,929 positive cows infected with FMD and 10,891 cows suspected of being infected with FMD. Meanwhile, cattle slaughtered due to PMK were 2,039 heads, and 1,301 cows died due to PMK.
“This FMD has a 100% infection rate. It means that once in one cage there is 1 infected animal, it is assumed that all animals in the cage are affected. And once it is infected, milk supplies and productions will immediately decrease by 80%. 40%,” said Dedi quoted Wednesday (27/07/2022).
Dedi explained the impact of the FMD spread on dairy cows which then cut milk supplies and production in the country.
“The calculation of the data is based on the reporting breeders. This data is probably smaller than the real conditions in the field,” said Dedi.
Due to the decline in domestic milk production, he said, milk imports continued to soar.
“Our production is decreasing, demand for milk continues to rise, and imports will increase. At this time, let alone push to increase milk production in the country. What happens is high depopulation, the condition is quite severe,” he said.
BPS noted that national fresh milk production in 2021 rose to 962,676.66 tons compared to 2020, which was recorded at 946,912.81 tons.
Meanwhile, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) noted that milk consumption in Indonesia continues to rise. From 2018 to 2022, the total domestic consumption of nonfat or skimmed milk is 161 thousand tons, 187 thousand tons, 196 thousand tons, 197 thousand tons, and 204 thousand tons.
The figures for 2022 are USDA projections, which were later revised up to 209 thousand tons.
It is recorded that Indonesia’s imports from 2018 to 2022 are 162 thousand tons, 188 thousand tons, and 197 thousand tons, and are predicted to increase to 199 thousand tons. The figure for 2022 was also revised up to 205 thousand tons.
For full cream powder or whole milk powder, USDA data shows Indonesia’s production from 2018 to 2022 is estimated at 81 thousand tons, 82 thousand tons, 85 thousand tons, and is predicted to be 96 thousand tons. Where the figure for 2022 was revised up to 100 thousand tons.
Meanwhile, Indonesia’s imports were 59 thousand tons, 54 thousand tons, 51 thousand tons, and 63 thousand tons, and are estimated to reach 63 thousand tons. The figure for 2022 was later revised up to 67 thousand tons.
On the other hand, global milk production this year is also predicted to shrink due to drought in major producing countries.
In New Zealand, the main supplier of milk to Indonesia, production is predicted to fall 1% to 21.9 million tons. As of May 2022, New Zealand’s milk production was reported to have shrunk by 6%.
Meanwhile, the Chairman of the National Dairy Council, Teguh Boediyana, added that the decline in fresh milk production by 30-40% per day cannot be taken lightly.
If the production of fresh milk, from farmers who are members of the cooperative or not members of the cooperative, which previously averaged 2,600 tons per day, fell to around 1,800 tons per day.
This means, he said, this condition has not taken into account the conditions in large-scale livestock companies. Moreover, he added, FMD caused by a virus that is included in the category of airborne disease, can reach about 200 km.
Fortunately, the fall in domestic production will not have much impact on dairy companies. Where so far, most of the industrial raw material needs are supplied by imports.