The BMKG (Meteorological, Climatological, and Geophysical Agency) has released its projections for the average surface air temperatures in Indonesia for the year 2024. According to their forecasts, the temperatures are expected to be higher compared to the previous year, 2023. The anomalies in the air temperatures are estimated to range from +0.23 °C to +0.36 °C, indicating a warmer climate than the period from 1991 to 2020.
In the recently published ‘Climate Outlook 2024’ report, BMKG outlines the potential reasons behind this change in 2024 temperatures. The agency attributes this phenomenon to various factors, including the moderate El Nino conditions observed in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, with an index value of +1.9.
Additionally, the positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) phenomenon, characterized by a dipole index value of +0.9, also contributes to the warmer sea surface temperatures.
Specifically, Indonesian waters are expected to experience a generally warmer sea surface with an anomaly value of +2.0°C. However, there are exceptions, such as the southern part of the western side of Sumatra, where an anomaly value of -2.0°C is observed due to the Positive IOD phenomenon.
The projections further elaborate on the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and IOD indices, indicating that ENSO will range from moderate El Nino to a neutral phase, with indices ranging from +1.39 to +0.06.
ENSO is predicted to be in a Weak El Nino phase in January-February-March 2024, with an ENSO index of +0.94, weakening to +0.46 (neutral) in March-April-May. The neutral phase is anticipated to persist until the end of the year, with a slight possibility of transitioning to the La Nina phase in the second semester of 2024.
BMKG emphasizes that despite the anticipated increase in average surface temperature, the likelihood of a heatwave phenomenon occurring in the Indonesian region is relatively low.
The agency attributes this to the geographical characteristics of Indonesia, surrounded by oceans with high air humidity, making it challenging for heatwaves to impact the archipelago.
Expanding the perspective globally, the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) notes new monthly temperature records between June and December.
This trend is expected to continue, driven by the warming El Nino weather phenomenon. WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo warns of the likelihood of El Nino intensifying in 2024, following its emergence in mid-2023.
The months of July and August in the previous year were recorded as the two hottest months on record, officially confirming that 2023 was the hottest year ever documented.
As scientists and meteorologists closely monitor these climate patterns, the implications of these temperature changes are crucial for understanding and addressing the broader impact on our environment and daily lives.
