A shift in global tension can change everything. Even a temporary pause can ripple across markets, energy prices, and economic confidence. That is what is now happening after the ceasefire between the United States and Iran. The move is bringing a sense of relief to the global economy, including Indonesia. Lower geopolitical pressure is seen as a positive signal. It affects energy prices and helps stabilize domestic financial markets.
M Rizal Taufikurahman from the Institute for Development of Economics and Finance explains that the impact is immediate, but still short term. The ceasefire reduces the risk of sudden spikes in energy prices. It also lowers the chance of disruptions in global logistics.
Oil prices reflect this shift. They had climbed above 110 US dollars per barrel. Now they are easing to around 90 to 95 US dollars per barrel. For Indonesia, this matters. The country still depends on energy imports, so lower prices help reduce external pressure.
Still, Rizal urges caution. “However, this cannot yet be seen as a structural improvement, as it remains fragile and reversible, considering that regional geopolitical dynamics are not fully stable,” he said, as reported by CNBC Indonesia on Thursday (9/4/2026).
At home, the effects are starting to show. Inflation and fiscal conditions respond quickly to changes in energy prices. Lower costs help contain imported inflation. They also ease pressure on logistics and production expenses. Even so, the room for fiscal improvement remains limited. Oil prices are still high compared to historical levels, and the rupiah continues to face vulnerability.
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The currency itself could see some relief. The ceasefire opens space for stabilization after the rupiah weakened to around Rp17,100 per US dollar.
“Easing global tensions opens room for exchange rate stabilization and potential capital inflows. However, the direction of the rupiah will still be determined by fundamental factors such as fiscal credibility, interest rate differentials, and Indonesia’s risk perception,” Rizal added.
There is also a more optimistic view. Myrdal Gunarto from Maybank Indonesia sees potential for stronger recovery if the ceasefire holds.
“The momentum of economic growth could accelerate again. And our fiscal burden, which was feared to expand, could return on track. So the development is positive,” he said, also quoted by CNBC Indonesia on Thursday (9/4/2026).
He points to two key drivers. Stable oil prices and smoother global energy supply. Both are critical for Indonesia. If major routes like the Strait of Hormuz remain open, energy distribution stays secure. That could significantly reduce pressure on government subsidies.
There is even a scenario where oil prices fall further. Myrdal estimates they could return to below 70 US dollars per barrel, especially if the global economy slows down.
“I think oil prices will remain around below US$70 per barrel. The implication for our inflation is that it should stay relatively below 3%. It is still around 2.51% for this year,” he said.
All of this leads to one clear takeaway. The ceasefire offers relief, but not certainty. The opportunity to Indonesia economy is there, but it depends on how stable the situation remains.
